Forex trade life cycle ppt


Given that US financial conditions have tightened of late, investors will also want to know if the Fed will tolerate further tightening (eg, USD appreciation). The Fed should deliver a 75bp rate hike but may keep its economic and policy outlook little changed, opting to wait for more economic data and details on the upcoming Trump stimulus. At the same time, Yellen may signal willingness to tolerate further tightening in US financial conditions in view of the latest rebound in US inflation expectations and given the resilience of risk sentiment at home and abroad.

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Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

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The BoE inflation report may struggle to exceed the dovish market expectations ahead of the August inflation report, and that could help GBP consolidate more broadly. We remain long GBP/CHF going into the release. Investors are looking for another solid US payroll and earnings data.

The August employment report was weak, leaving us feeling comfortable with our call for the Fed to stay on hold in September and hike again in December.

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The Fed have been a little more hawkish of late, and with good reason in my opinion. The numbers coming out of the US have been good enough for a rate hike this year.

The holiday season is in full swing and for some this may mean that markets will settle down as liquidity dries up in the coming weeks.

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In addition to providing useful information on the economy, the report is also a window into how FOMC members may vote at the next interest rate policy meeting. Because each report is based on anecdotal information as much as statistics, it is subjective and may reflect opinions of district governors. As the only comprehensive report made available to the public, the Beige Book provides a rare opportunity for markets to better understand the Federal Reserve and its views on the economy.

The National Australia Bank releases both a monthly and quarterly report. The quarterly report is more comprehensive, surveying around 6555 small to large non-farm firms. The quarterly report provides greater detail on the data as well as a short to mid-term outlook of Australia. Because of seasonal volatility and government protections the survey only excludes the farm sector.


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